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Jerry Atrick
I'll give you a passing grade on your test!
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BigPaw...I'd have no qualms over a big Cabrera Trade either...but its a lot harder to pull off with his deal as we both know. Even though the Red Sox basically print money they are probably more interested in getting Gonzalez from the Padres because he has an insanely cheap deal for the next couple of years. The Padres' new GM should really be able to re-stock his organization moving that guy. Perhaps if the Red Sox can't get a deal done w/the Padres they'd make a play for Cabrera.
Wingnut....I think the M's are the frontrunners for Jackson right now if I were handicapping things. But I really doubt they could pull off the blockbuster for both. In time the Cubs will almost certainly put their best offer on the table for Granderson and we'll just have to see if DD pulls the trigger. But I agree with you that you have the right names from the Yankees....I just wonder if they'll really move the Montero kid....they really have the hype-machine going for him. He's probably still at least a year away I'd bet as well.
Its going to get interesting....there would be nothing wrong w/DD holding on to Granderson and Jackson...I won't argue against that much.....but I think the "where there is smoke there is fire" rule applies here. Some kind of deal is going to go down I think.
Mariners
SI.com has another wonderful internet rumor about the Mariners being interested in Granderson as well as Jackson. This would be a blockbuster obviously. It could be all Rumor Mill junk you read when reporters are bored obviously...but I would imagine the Mariners have some real interest in both players.
The problem I see is that I think the M's are short on players to make a massive deal work. I would make the assumption that King Felix is not going to be in this deal...he's worth more than Jackson/Granderson in my opinion. I'd do that deal if I were DD probably but the M's wouldn't.
So that puts us in the next tier of players....Brandon Morrow is a pitcher I'm sure DD would like, a big righty power pitcher. But then we're talking guys off their big league roster like Mark Lowe, Jose Lopez, and Shawn Kelley. All good players....none big stars. From their minor league system they have a top SS prospect coming off of a broken leg named Carlos Triunfel and a 3B prospect who can hit a little named Matt Tuiasosopo plus a lefty batting OF in Michael Saunders shows some real power. I doubt the M's would move their top starting pitching prospect, Canadian Phillipe Aumont. Another first rounder from '08 is a reliever named Joshua Fields, but he's a reliever who is having control issues...big arm though.
I could see the M's making a deal for one of the Tigers' moveable players...but a bigger deal for both players seems unlikely to me based on what looks readily available.
In checking out the M's roster its always funny to see the payroll disparity that free agent mistakes can cause....Carlos Silva made $12.25M last year while sucking as usual. King Felix made $3.8M to finish 2nd in the Cy Young voting. No need to feel sorry the King...he'll cash in large if he stays health one day. But the 4-yr/$48M deal given Silva a couple of years ago was a knee-slapper when it happened and is continuing comedy today. (unfortunately the Tigers have their own albatross deals to worry about)
AFL
The AFL season was abbreviated by a week this year....another fallout from the WBC I think....so there was less time for prospects to work on skills and get evaluated by scouts/personnel-types. But besides having their club win the AFL Championship, the Tigers prospects had some good moments and some setbacks.
Robbie Weinhardt was one to watch. He ended up leading the AFL in strikeouts w/33 in 20.1 IP versus only 9 walks. He was smacked around in his first few outings but then caught a groove over the final 5 or 6 weeks and was consistently tough. He combines a good K-rate w/a good Groundball Percentage...this is a nice combo of skills. He probably has a shot at seeing DET next year. (A fair note is that Casey Fien had a nice AFL last year and did see DET the following the year...however not with great results. Fien may still contribute in DET though)
Andy Oliver also pitched 2 scoreless IP in the Championship Game and followed Weinhardt by struggling early in the AFL but pitching well from there. He pitched primarily from the bullpen after being a starter in college. I assume he goes back to starting in Spring Training...but we'll see. He could be a fast riser in the Tigers' system. Before struggling a tad as a Senior at OSU, Oliver was a Top 10 Draft prospect by many evals...so the talent is there. He ended up striking out 18 batters in 18 IP against 9 BB. His ERA was around 2.6.
Scott Drucker faded as the AFL season went on. He probably had the biggest regular season workload of all the pitchers though, so this is no shock. He's not a huge prospect...not all AFL pitchers are...they need arms to fill the league. Drucker did have a few good outings. He'll probably be back at Toledo next year biding his time.
Thad Weber is a medium prospect who had a good year in the minor. He only pitched a dozen innings in the AFL w/a 4.50 ERA. Not bad since there are plenty of good sticks and hitter's parks in the AFL. His WHIP was elevated but his K/BB was 13/2 which is good. He's worth watching next year to see what he does in a full year at Erie. He did pitch a no-hitter last year in the minors.
Scott Sizemore was crushing everything he saw at the beginning of the AFL. He was the Player of the Week in week 1 and was hitting .368/.462/.947...but he got taken out turning the double play and had to have surgery on his leg. He should be okay...we'll see. He had proven he could play well in the AFL the previous two autumns....I'm still irked they had him there again with nothing to prove. (btw...its laughable when the Polly-Pollyannas go on about Sizemore being a butcher in the field. Total joke...none of these boobs know anything more than an error total. He gets good remarks from scouts...minor league E-totals tell us little)
Casper Wells took advantage of the AFL as a good complement to his injury shortened regular season. He did a lot of good things. He showed some patience at the plate working some walks and he played all three outfield positions and that versatility should help him win a job in DET one day. He ended up at .351/.433/.662 and was second in RBI in the league. He did continue to strike out a fair bit when he did record an out.
Cale Iorg did nothing to quiet his legions of doubters. He posted an OPS of .616 and committed 8 errors. Next year will be a big year for him...will it click? If not then, then when? Hopefully the tools that the scouts loved will show through in the next year. If nothing else Iorg did play a role in winning the AFL Championship game. He had a sacrifice that chipped into a rally....he also was hit-by-pitch and then flashed some good speed beating a throw to second base that allowed a run to score. Nothing sexy but "the little things" that many here hold so dear. (personally I'd rather see him do the "Big things"...but we'll take what we can get! LOL)
So another AFL Season in the books!
Granderson
Went to a gathering at a co-workers house tonight. One gal who I work with had her boyfriend there....he lives in Illinois now but grew up in Detroit.
He is practically distraught over the Tigers moving Granderson....and especially if they move him to the Cubs. He works with all Cubby fans. This guy knows I'm a Tigers' fan as well, so he started right in about how "Granderson is the best defensive CF in the AL....did you see that catch against CLE this year? They CAN'T move Granderson....they can't! They can trade Jackson if they want to..." He's excitable...this went on for a long time. I just kept saying "they might get plenty back....he's marketable"...this got nothing back but "they can't move Granderson!"
So mark him down as anti-Granderson Trade to say the least. He didn't care to hear about what they could get and how that could help them by adding 2 to 4 players. It was fun to listen to him. If nothing else he you know there is a big Granderson fan in northern Illinois.
Chris
I looked like a great day to be there other than the result.
AFL Championship
Congrats to the Javelinas. I'd say Robbie Weinhardt ended it in style by pitching two great innings, striking out 4 allowing nothing. He gets the "W". Andy Oliver pitched well today as well. Iorg and Wells contributed the first rally. Good day for the Tigers' prospects.
AFL
The AFL Championship Game is being played right now and being shown on MLBN.
Wells and Iorg are both in the starting lineup today.
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Steve....thank you. The one thing I hope is that folks who read posts like that don't come away thinking that anyone is saying "Iorg will be okay"....it doesn't look good now...but the epitaph isn't written yet. There is no harm in seeing where he is in another year.
Fox...yeah, I know. One measly word in my post set him off...whatever. He even threw in a Cabrera-bash for good measure. Good stuff.
Portland....thanks for posting that on Starlin Castro, the Cubs, and Granderson. I saw another analyst saying he thought there was no reason to cash in Castro in a Granderson trade. I think it was an ESPN chat, but I'm not sure. Its easy for us to overvalue Tigers of all levels because we get so in tune with there good attributes....a lot of us might be overvaluing Granderson by a little bit. I think they can get something good though...if not Castro then perhaps Cashner and Vitters. Or maybe they hold Granderson....and that's fine as well. (I'll go on record and say I'm not a big fan of a Granderson Reality Show concept. I doubt that does his on-field career any favors...I don't know if it hurts either. I just can't imagine wanting to watch it.)
Fair is Fair
If Audy Ciriaco's tools still let him be called a legit prospect, then Cale Iorg is still one as well.
At age 22 Iorg posted a .734 OPS at Lakeland w/18 E's and .960 Fielding% (E's and Fielding% aren't great stats but they're what's readily available)
At age 22, also in Lakeland, Ciriaco posted a .694 OPS and committed 32 E's w/a .920 Fielding%.
Certainly this could all just mean they both won't amount to anything and will add to the minor league scrapheap in time. But minor league statistics only go so far in telling us where a player is in his development....at some point the natural athleticism and vaunted "tools" could coalesce into something worthwhile having in the in the system.
Iorg then struggled at AA as is well documented here. Mostly due to DD's comment about Iorg becoming "an All-Star, sooner than people think", Iorg has become the target of jokes and offhand dismissals. His signing bonus probably plays into this as well. I think his unique circumstances gives him more time before judgments become final.
Ciriaco being added to the 40-man roster to avoid the Rule 5 Draft is a definite nod by DD that young SS's with the tools that excite scouts are worth holding until the last doubts of weather they'll ever come to fruition are wrung out of them. Ciriaco has some speed and he has some power....so far he's an Error machine of epic proportions....but E-totals in the minors aren't a death sentence defensively. The sainted Placido Polanco posted a 21-error season in the minors once upon a time....he grew out of that evidently in the field.
Link
Pitchers coming and going....
Josh Johnson and the Marlins are at an impasse in their negotiations. Johnson wants at least a 4th year on a deal and the Marlins are balking at that. Trading Johnson would certainly fit the Marlin M.O. should no progress be made. Certainly targeting Johnson could be a good use of Tigers' prospects like Casey Crosby, Ryan Strieby, and Wilken Ramirez....but I suspect that a club like the Rangers for instance would be able to dust any offer the Tigers could make in prospects in their pursuit of pitching. (though there is word the Rangers are okay w/their pitching depth....we'll see)
Heyman at SI.com is tweeting that Edwin Jackson is in high demand from the M's and other clubs. Perhaps DD can make a good sized score...bigger than we even think. Bob L. posted a report today that the names of Mark Lowe and Jose Lopez were being bandied about in addition to Brandon Morro. Let's say DD could get those three guys in return for Jackson or Jackson plus something. Suddenly that looks like an okay deal. Morrow has big "upside" (hackneyed term but fits here), Lowe is a young useable reliever, and Lopez is a young guy who has some power even though he's very OBP-deficient.(I wonder if Lopez could be converted to a 3B one day...he's merely dabbled at that spot, playing mostly 2B and bit of a 1B) Lopez is all about batting average and SLG%....few walks.
Whether that M's deal is realistic only time will tell....but it appears DD is ready to mix it up w/his fellow GM's and see what can get done. Heyman also says the Tigers are among the most active "sellers" right now w/the Reds, Marlins, and a couple of other clubs......it should get interesting!
Trade memories
Cabrera/Willis Trade. I was not the biggest fan on the day of the trade. I had been arguing against acquiring Dontrelle Willis since the trade deadline of the previous season in '07. So that was not a good move in my mind.
I was optimistic about Cabrera part but only if they could sign him....they did eventually, so that I did indeed start to warm to it.
The Willis Extension was its own brand of craziness as stated at the time.
I recall saying on the day of the trade that the Tigers hadn't improved themselves by as much as people thought over the previous season.....maybe 3 or 4 wins. Turns out they plummeted.....
'10, '11 and beyond
I always think if a team is staying the same, its getting worse. Standing pat sux.
I do agree that waiting for some of the dead-money contracts to evaporate will yield some opportunity when that time comes. This year's free agent group stinks. There are some potentially more attractive names coming on line in the next couple of off-seasons after this one. So the Tigers aren't in bad shape in my opinion this year when it comes to free agency right...not being able to participate this year is okay by me...there isn't much out there.
But I think if "treading water" and biding time until '11 is the idea, then it doesn't make sense to hold prime assets that could yield a big return. I think you might be better off getting the younger talent in return and letting them play through their MLB learning curve while you get ready to shed the dead money. Holding Granderson and Jackson in a Tread-water Year only burns through another year of the control you have over them and potentially makes them less valuable to your organization. If treading water is the goal I'd be more inclined to spend the season on as much young talent on the rise as possible over two established veterans that are both good players but have their own question marks (i.e. Granderson's regressive season and Jackson's second half slides).
I'm not fully invested in the idea of trading the better players the Tigers have....but I think there is more than one way to "tread water" and accumulating superior depth and young talent while you wait on '11 is another way of doing rather than standing pat with the holdovers from '09.
'09 was a good year and I enjoyed....but 86-76 was about as good as that club could have been. They scored 2 less runs than they allowed. They easily could have been a 78-win team w/o some of the breaks they had. A shake up shouldn't be something to be too leary of.
Valverde
First off, I don't believe I watched more than 5 innings of Astros' baseball this year. To my recollection that didn't include seeing Valverde, so I don't know how he looked last year other than he posted a fine ERA. I used to watch him more when he was w/Arizona since my wife's family has adopted the D-Backs since moving out there. "El Papa Grande'" was his nickname I believe. He was fun to watch in AZ and he's been pretty successful in Houston.
Concerns. His inning count dropped this past year. I don't know if he was hurt...if so, what did he hurt? Or did they just not have many Closer Opps as compared to other seasons? His walk rate went up and his K-rate went down. That's gotta be a bit concerning....how was his velocity and command?
I'd be very hesitant to enter into a long term deal for a closer. Millions of dollars and a long commitment to a guy who is going to pitch 60 to 70 innings. Many of these outings will be "protecting" three-run leads. Even though he's been good I just can't see it. I don't think he's been one to extend his outings for 4+ out saves either.
For instance the A's just had a kid win the ROY and he did a fine job closing games. He did go 4+ outs on occasion and pitched about 85 innings. I think the Tigers can find someone like that....or they can probably find someone on the market or in trade who requires less of a commitment than Valverde.....or they could invest in Rodney (I would prefer this over Valverde to be honest...."the devil we know" concept)
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