| Jump to bottom |
T-Dog
All of that sounds GREAT to me.Will take another season like last year in a heartbeat as opposed to 2008.Breaking up the team and starting over could mean a string of 2008s in a row.Dont want to wait till 2013 to contend again.Even though they fell short the season was exciting.
T-dog
i certainly agree with you on your comment about batting orders, Yoop. This thing about the ideal #2 hitter being a little second basemen or CF who can run a bit but not too much, hit behind the runner and "handle the bat" ... i get it, but to me, it's all overrated by the TV summaries of the occasional run that is "created" without the benefit of an actual line drive.
It's part of a nice story line for the TV guys, but there just aren't that many runs scored that way.
To me, the perfect #2 hitter is Pujols. He's also of course the perfect leadoff man, #3 hitter, #4 hitter, etc.
I love Grandy, my favourite Tiger, but i'd trade him for the right package. A good player who does a lot of things well. But he's approaching the end of his prime, is no longer cheap and is good, but not great.
Vitters, the young SS and Marmol might do it. With Cashner as well, that's hard to turn down. Not interested in Colvin though, unless he's a throw-in.
T-dog
I've never spent a ton of time worrying about batting orders. I'm not trying to dodge your question...I just don't get into that issue all that much.
I think Sizemore would probably be fine there batting second. Or they could move Raburn there after Granderson. They might bring in somebody as well...I think a deal will get done to shake things up.
There is the chance that Polanco goes somewhere and has a nice year....I've never discounted that...but I don't care. He's at an age where he isn't going to carry anyone by himself and he needs to hit .310+ to really matter over a whole season and even then he's just a decent contributor. I have no love for "hitting behind the runner" or "moving a guy over"...yippee...that's all fine if you do that, but I'd rather have a guy who can slug .440+ anyday.
While I've never discounted that Polanco might have a good year left in him I find it interesting that critics of playing Sizemore almost uniformly assume he'll struggle mightily. He might...I've mentioned that as well. But he might also play darn well....a bunch of players vie for the ROY every year, why not Sizemore...
T-Dog
Call me sometime today when you get a free moment. Advice time.
Thanks
T-Dog
I'd agree with your last post.
Again........you're a good man. All differences aside, I find you very intelligent, and someone whose opinion I value greatly.
T-dog
True, Yooper. CC is different also, because he was a rental from the Brewers. IF JV were to be dealt NEXT winter, think of Halladay THIS winter as a pretty good comparison, except the Jays would charge a premium to a division rival. There are always little factors that make each scenario different. Cliff Lee may wind up being the steal of the whole lot. I don't get the impression that he'll get CC or Santana money when his payday comes around.
T-dog
Santana doesn't quite belong in the comparison. He had a no-trade clause that really boxed in the Twins on what they could auction him off for....
T-dog
Another good book is "It Ain't Over 'til Its Over"....that one is also by the BPro crew and examines some of the best pennant races in history and tries to figure out why certain events happened they way the did. It was a very entertaining read....
T-dog
You will enjoy "Baseball Behind the Numbers"....that's a fun read. "The Book" is pretty good as well. Tom Tango and his buds are some smart guys. I have not read Bradbury's book on baseball economics....let us know here if you like it.
T-Dog
Yooper- I'm not saying that "blown save pct" is a flawless measure of anything other than the percentage of times that the bullpen is given a lead in the late innings and blows the lead. No question that circumstances can be different, but those should even out over the course of a season, for the most part. But by any measure you look at- ERA, strikeouts, walks, save pct, K/ BB ratio, WHIP- the Tiger bullpen was not okay. They sucked. What's worse, we knew they sucked in 2008, and cheap help was available, but DD ignored it and the results were predictable.
Some of the problem is on Leyland, but much more of it is on DD. When Leyland plays a game of bullpen roulette every day, he's bound to come across a pitcher that doesn't have it on a given day. Give five guys a shot to blow the lead, and chances are he will find one to blow it. He continued to use Bobby Seay in late inning situations when he was ineffective. He used Miner when he was not getting the job done. But ultimately, he didn't have enough dependable relievers to get the ball from the starter to the closer, and the guys in between were not good.
Looking forward, I would not give Rodney a fat multi year contract, but I'm not so sure any other club will, either. I'd definitely offer him arbitration, and I'd be happy if he accepted. I'd do the same with Lyon, and I'd be happy if either one or both accepted. Best case, Lyon is another Todd Jones, and saves 85% of his chances for us- coaster style and all. Best case, Perry finds his command and is a late inning stud. Best case, Zumaya has a year like he had in 2006 and avoids the DL for a full season (something he didn't even do in 2006 when he missed the LCS). Would you bet $ 125 million in payroll on all that happening? I wouldn't. Not when you can get decent help for about $ 2 mil per season until the great bullpen class of 2008 is ready to fill roles at the major league level.
T-Dog
A blown save can happen anytime in the last 3 innings. So you pull your starter after 6 IP. You're leading 5-4. The bullpen goes three IP and gives up 1-run....you win it in the bottom of the ninth 6-5. So your bullpen just had a 3.00 ERA in a game you just won....but they get tagged with a "Blown Save" in that scenario I believe.
I know that's one of the best case scenarios for a blown save.....many are more egregious than that. But it does illustrate how that "blown save" statistic misses out on a few things. No measure is perfect as we all know...but I find this one a little weaker than others. I'd be more interested to know what bullpen coughed up the most 3-run SaveOpps, 2-run SaveOpps, and 1-run SaveOpps. It seems to me the degree of difficulty makes a major difference.
T-dog
You can cherry pick your statistics w/the best of 'em! I'll give you that. LOL
Blown Saves...how many of their blown saves did they ultimately end up winning the game anyhow? Save percentage is meaningless to me, mostly because I question the value of the "Save" as a measure.
Rodney and Lyon were awfully good last year. Ni and Perry chipped in well enough. Miner and Seay had good moments. The bullpen wasn't a massive problem, especially for a club that received good starting pitching for several months.
As far the '08 Draft is concerned.....as previously stated I was skeptical of that decision to go bonkers on college relievers. But you have to let it play out and we are NO POSITION AT ALL to pass judgement on the '08 Draft in October of '09. One guy has made it big club. Several others have made AA. One guy was at least of value to trade for pennant-race bat.(no matter how it worked out) To me, the returns are okay but very inconclusive. It may end up being DD's dumbest draft idea yet to load up on college relievers....but it still might work out well if the '11 bullpen is loaded w/guys like Gayhart, Green, Satterwhite, Perry, Stohr, Conn, and so on...
T-dog
I think you're reading a bit too much into me jokingly calling the '08 Draft "The Great Bullpen Draft of '08". Certainly its too early to call it a "great draft"...the name just refers to the dozen relievers they snagged.
T-dog
I think he'd never approach that lofty OBP again. The book has to be out that he cannot hurt you with his stick....those walks will dry up. He has zero power....marginal talent. I watched him a bit that year in '07 for TFFL reasons.
If DD got him w/the idea of 500 ABs and leading off......well.....fire DD!
T-dog
Your continued fascination with Reggie Willits is deeply mystifying! LOL
| Jump to top |
