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Marc
Maybe DD needs a body guard.
I'd crash the Winter Meeting with Torch anytime.
Marc
" For me, he sounds straightforward, and means that there isn't any budget flexibility, and we're not going to throw money away if there are other alternatives."-
Sure hope there's some other alternatives.
Marc
Agreed, allowing the market to take shape is always a factor before making major decisions. I also think there are a few other issues in play.
Scott Sizemore's rehab may be a consideration. The injury isn't thought to be serious, and the initial prognosis had him ready for ST. Is everything still on track? I haven't heard. I do know that his previous wrist injury wasn't thought to be all that serious initially, yet it cost him a season. People heal differently, and if there is any question on Sizemore's health, that can impact the decision of what we offer Polly.
When Dombrowski says "we are going to be fiscally responsible" most are piling on and interpreting that to mean we are cutting payroll. I don't see it that way. For me, he sounds straightforward, and means that there isn't any budget flexibility, and we're not going to throw money away if there are other alternatives. For example; Lyon had an outstanding season, and most want him back. But, if the medical team believes Zumaya is fully healed, and the talent evaluators see that Ryan Perry is making big strides, we may go that route rather than pony up millions for Lyon. Kinda like what we did with giving Rodney the closer job; we believed he had the talent, and took the chance that given the opportunity and health the talent would emerge. The popular thing would have been to go with someone that had past success, but we chose to go with someone we believed had the skill to do the job.
The other big piece may be Verlander. I believe we would like to ink him to an extension. How much can we end load it? Can we skim off big numbers in the first year? If so, that gives us a little more flexibility to sign others. Likwise, if we can swing a Jackson deal that returns a solid inexpensive young pitcher we save some cash that can be used this year.
All in all, there are many pieces to the puzzle and things just have to sort out. I'm sure there are other factors also, but it's almost like dominoes, once one piece falls the rest of the puzzle will fall in place.
Marc
Chris - I'm not saying that your arguments aren't fair and have some possible legitimate points against Cabrera and his contract(or for the possible scenario to trade him). Anything is possible. But if you look at it realistically, on the field, and use your eyeball test as well as the numbers - not to mention what the heck has gone on "around him" offensively- especially this year, he is elite in every way. OBP's for young players, and it is a trend with many latin types, tend to go up as they age. It also would be much better if Miguel Cabrera didn't have arguably some of the worst 3 and 5 hitters around him from a production standpoint all year long. That had to be in his head when he was going through his RBI drought, mid season. He is top in every way though, with a chance to be the best overall hitter in any given year.
Marc
I think Cabrera is one of the top 5 BA combined SLG average guys in baseball - I'll give you that. I also will give you that he's been one of the top five most reliable and consistent run producers for the last 5 years. No argument from me there.
As and OBA - SLG guy - he's top 20 - top 30 - and that's very very good - but again half the teams in baseball have an OBA-SLG top 30 guy at 1b in the middle of their lineup. Cabrera has not been an OBA monster for the Tigers. One of the weaknesses in his game is that will swing at bad pitches when he should be taking walks sometimes. Now his OBA is still good - but it's been BA dependent - so how much better is he than lesser BA guys with more plate patience that SLG as well.
Cabrera is an elite hitter - I'm not saying he's not. He is still young - and that's the best part about having him and his contract - is he's not signed beyond his prime. Still - we know he has (at least some) bad off field habits and a big body that so far has been durable - but what if that changes. He could be a back or shoulder injury away from being a disaster on our payroll.
In general - I hate long term contracts. I guess my preference is for flexiblity - having a mix of young players - prime guys - and older vets on short deals (like the Rogers - Jones type pick ups we made before 2006).
If the scenerio plays out where Cabrera continues to be money for 300 30 110+ through his prime - and he continues to build HOF credentials - and he matures off the field and develops as a 1b - than I will be wrong. And I'm not saying that can't happen. I'm just saying - there is a flip side to be worried about - and 20+mm tied up at 1b is still a lot of jack for the one position where premium offense is most readily available.
Marc
I get your reply back to me - and like I've said before - the Tigers can win with Cabrera in a given yr. His production has value. His is still fairly young and has been durable - so he is reliable for a high level of offensive production. His contract doesn't pay him a dime past age 32. All of those things are good.
Still - of the top 30 OPS guys in the MLB last yr - 14 of them were 1b. Of the top 50 prospects in baseball according to the Baseball America at the mid-point of last yr - 7 of them were 1b. Do we need to pay a 1b 20mm plus per season is a legit question. It's the easiest position to get offensive production from. Do I feel any better about our chances for next yr because we've got Cabrera and not Adam Dunn or Joey Votto in the middle of our lineup? If we could bolster other parts of our team - and go with a lesser stop gap at 1b - would it give us a better chance to win? All fair questions.
In general - after watching what's happened in the last couple years - I'm less and less inclined to play big market baseball - something I advocated highly for years when Ilitch was operating with the dregs payroll wise. I still think you need to have committment - but I think the Tigers have overdone it - and now they are playing a bit of a price. Flexiblity - a blend of youth with proven talent - some proper restraint at times - these are some thing that this organization has to start showing a value for.
They don't have to trade Cabrera to make me happy or to eventually win - not saying that. But what I've personally seen in 2 yrs of him being here - and the last 4-5 yrs overall - we don't for sure need to hang onto Cabrera in order to win either. I'd try like heck to move him - but that's just me. Not saying they are wrong for keeping him - or you are wrong for wanting him still here. There's plus and minus either way.
Marc
"Can an opinion be wrong"....Old doggie- only when it is as nuts as yours...LOL! Just teasing you here by the way. Don't be afraid to laugh.....
Marc
Can an opinion be wrong. An opinion is formed knowledge learned and feelings which cannot not be explained, but thank you for your thoughts.
Off the wall like the first time I heard of the trade possibility. Way off the wall like many other comments I have read.
Heck as a fan I will miss Granderson, but hope my off the wall comments make me feel good like in the Kueen for Rocky Colovito did. LOL GO TIGERS!!!
Marc
Call me someime when you have about 5 minutes. Quick and painless
Marc
Damus - it would have to be THEEE top dog SS, not just anyone or even just a good to really good prospect. Granderson is worth way more than that....
Marc
Dombrowski would trade either Granderon or Jackson for a top-dog shortstop.... maybe even a top 3B - then move Inge somewhere else in MLB. But if I were Dombrowski, my #1 priority would be seeking GMs willing to part with a shortstop first and foremost.
Marc
Chris, nothing wrong with Ilitch and the purse strings. Problem I have is DD making the calls and and at times recklessly throwing dollars around like a drunken sailor on leave. Someone said DD needs to cede the GM post to someone else and just preside as President of the outfit since he may be overwhelmed. I think that's true for the fan base. Shock and awe after 2009 is more like it. Regardless, such a move 1) Aint gonna happen with DD's overinflated ego, and 2) Who would be the GM choice and care to work under DD' supervision? Reminds me of the talk about Parcells becoming Lions coach and reporting to Millen.
Marc
What's interesting for DD/Ilitch is - they are faced with the reality that to give this team a "best" chance to compete again next yr - they have to spend money. They have to spend some on the bullpen for sure - that's just a given. They really should spend some on one more starting pitcher. And a dynamic changer for the offense (like Figgins) - is something else you have to look at if you're thinking about opportunities for the team to get better.
If you're Ilitch - and DD tells him - we can keep Rodney for 2yr 6-8per - we can get another starter on a short term deal from the Harden, Pavano, Washburn. etc group for needed depth that's going to cost us another 5-8mm this yr - and we can get Chone Figgins for the 3yr 30mm deal that Furcal got last yr - what do you (can you say)?
Ilitch doesn't look like he wants to take backward steps - despite the tight payroll talk. The bullpen - there's not a choice - they cannot just punt (if they do the season if over before it starts). They probably can sell Verlander/Jackson/Porcello and the reclamation projects for the rotation - but the reality is - that's a rotation that is most likely to fall short of playoff worthy again. They can trust their young players progress and a Mags/Guillen revival to give them more offense (I would have more faith in that than counting on the rotation personally) - but that's not going to be very inspiring to fans this off-season who can't even bring themselves to let go of what's left of Polanco without going into panic mode.
DD/Ilitch have been opportunity buyers for the last 5 years. Payroll for 2010 doesn't seem to leave a lot of room for much if any "opportunity" buying. So we will see. I'd love to know if Ilitch would still open up the purse strings for what he thinks is the "right" opportunity (Harden??? Chapman??? Figgins???... I kind of think he still would - and maybe even risk the payroll hitting 150mm for one yr (knowing it can drop dramitically for 2011 - and he can maybe consider "rolling average" there.) Ilitch is the guy that OKd to let Mags vest - in fact - he basically called for it. So you have to wonder if he really is going to make DD go into the off-season with a "closed for new business" sign on the door. I don't think he will (doesn't mean they'll able to pull anything major off) - but there's a chance for them to surprise us again - like you said this morning.
Marc
Chris - LOL! I don't need to see you throwing fits!!
Marc
I'd be very comfortable with Rodney back for 2yrs 12-16mm total. He's earned reasonable "closer money" - and if they can't afford to pay someone reasonable closer money this off-season - they might as well punt on the whole season. And if they even think about paying Polanco - but not Rodney - I'll throw a fit man. It'll be ugly.
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