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Chris
I looked like a great day to be there other than the result.
Chris
Bonderman, Guillen, Robertson, and even Inge weren't outrageous contracts when they were made, and in each case they haven't worked out.
I think you'll find MANY that disagree with that statement.
-Bonderman's contract was by far the most reasonable in my opinion. Others think it was high-risk, as they were paying more for potential than anything else.
-Guillen's contract was signed as if his numbers would keep progressing like they did for 5 straight season, with seemingly little regard to the bell-curve of a typical career. And it also ignored that the Steriods Era was fizzling out. Furthermore, he was also signed and paid as a shortstop. Additionally, it was a signing that went beyond his prime years, in terms of age. ....a HUGE blunder of a contract.
-Robertson had ONE good season. And he was a 4th starter (at best) given a long-term contract of a #2-3.
-Inge was overpaid, and many said at the time. The length was generous. Furthermore, he was signed after his most successful offensive season - in which he still only had an OBP of .313 and a OPS of sub-.800.
-You forgot to mention Willis' contract - the most obvious blunder of them all. It's almost doubtful that DD watched any video of Dontrelle's previous two years.
Chris
I understand Marc's post, and in most part agree with it. As far as your comment: " don't act like this all part of some great logical master strategy from DD.". I have no idea where that's coming from. I believe (and always have) that Dombrowski is a competent baseball man, and very experienced in running a franchise from top to bottom. I think he and Ilitch have a shared goal of fielding a competitive franchise each season. The ultimate prize is winning it all, but as we all know it's a unique year that you capture it all. I'm sure Dombrowski would "do over" some of the contracts in play. I also think that for the most part, the deals when made were slightly on the generous side, but overall reasonable. Magglio gets the most attention here, but the reality is this years "vest" is part of a total package. We knew when we made the deal that the end years would be expensive. We also hoped the prime years would produce a middle of the order bat that would put us in the chase for the title. For the most part we have gotten that, plus a batting title. Bonderman, Guillen, Robertson, and even Inge weren't outrageous contracts when they were made, and in each case they haven't worked out. Oh well, move on. The only deal that I've never understood is the Willis pachage. Deep down I wonder if that didn't have something to do with setting the tone for Cabrera's negotiation. If so, a stupid play in my view, but I can't think of any reasonable explanation for such a silly contract.
As far as the Granderson thing; there may be very serious disappointment in his play last season, a season which should be a prime season. I really don't give a rats a _ _ what statistics may say, I watch the games and Granderson had an overall poor year. If he can be spun for a couple very high end players of need I'd have to consider it also. Likewise, with Jackson. Is he the all-star or the second half blunder? If he can be moved for a Morrow type, I have no problem with it.
The master plan is clear; maintain a top 10 payroll (we're way over that now), invest in young players, build a solid foundation of scouting and development, make smart trades, use FA'y to fill needs where there aren't alternatives, and build around the master core. The core is simply Verlander, Cabrera, Granderson, and Porcello. If Grandy is moved, it will be for a good haul. Bank on it.
Chris
I think if its Morrow for Jackson that its conceivable the Tigers could get another B-level guy thrown in. They have a decent shortstop that's in the AFL named Carlos Triunfel and a few others that DD could angle for. But saving $4M and getting Morrow is pretty solid, I'd agree w/you there.
As you know, I'd love to see the Tigers secure Brignac and Hellickson (they call him "Hellboy", I can't decide if I like that or not....probably not)...that would be a big score.
Chris
There was nothing to say about Renteria. His play said it all. Dombrowski said as soon as the season ended we were looking to upgrade. All of the arb stuff was pure fan specualtion and banter. Nothing to explain.
Polly is a different story; he's a fan favorite, he's tenured, he still plays well. If the decision were made, we would handle it the same as he did Casey ("you don't fit in our plans"), or as we just did Marcus (bye-bye). Silence means no decision has been made. Maybe you're right and he won't return, but that decision hasn't been made as of now.......that' I'd bet on. There is absoulutely no reason not to cut ties if that's what we're "clearly" doing. Interest from other teams mean nothing. After all he's a FA not trade bait.
Chris
Not to be argumentative, but no it's not clear that Polanco won't return. We most definitely have a difference in perception. I don't percieve Granderson's $5M salary being on the trading block. What I do see, is that Granderson is one of our most marketable players and DD is willing to listen to multi-player options. On the block? No, willing to listen? Yes.
As for Polanco, I think one big issue right now is Sizemore's injury. It's pretty clear that DD has never been bashful about announcing that a veteran player isn't returning (Sean Casey?), but yet he has been pretty uncommittal about Polly. Why? Maybe because we haven't made our mind up. Sizemore's injury probably muddied that decision even more. My guess is; Polly will choose to move on...........we will offer arbitration. We'll see, but in my mind there certainly isn't anything close to being clear at this point.
Chris
Personally, I think that if they offer the right dollar figure to Verlander, he'll sign. If he and his agent feel they can get more by waiting for free agency, they'll shop him. I think he'd be smart to sign an extension soon. They piled a big workload on his right arm this year...if he were to sign a large deal (that maybe the Yankees could one day beat of course) now he would insure himself a big payday and still be young enough to shop himself again a few years from now if he stays healthy.
Some folks dismiss the BPro measures as junk...and that's cool. But they have a measure for starting pitchers simply titled "stress" dealing with workload. Verlander had the highest measure in '09 in MLB. It was twice the total of the second place guy. This doesn't mean he'll automatically break down of course....but it shows you how much they rode him last year compared to other pitchers. He could do well by taking an AJ Burnett sized deal now and insure himself from a physical breakdown.....and I could see DD doing that no matter what has happened w/Bonderman and others.
Or the Tigers could shop him.....you've been okay with the concept in the past several times. I could see that as well...but I don't think DD is going that route. But my question is that if you're okay with shopping Verlander and Cabrera, why not shop Granderson? He's not as good as the other two players and he's very marketable. He's signed to a nice deal and you'd think the Tigers would want to hold that. But I'm starting to really think that there aren't many outfielders on the market right now that are viewed as "difference makers"....some will debate if Granderson really is one...but the reality SEEMS to be that some around the game view him to be just that. He might bring the uber-haul of young talent the organization should be desperate for.
I get why you want to trust the current young talent on hand....but in all honesty the Tigers have a thin layer to count on at the upper levels. Ramirez, Strieby, Wells, Sizemore, Avila and maybe a couple of others....that isn't a high-end list when compared to talent around the league. The truth of course is that half of that list will fail to come through as anything meaningful. The Tigers need numbers...the depth to plug in the next guy when someone from the current crop fails. They also need a starting pitcher like a Cashner or a Hughes who either are ready or very, very close to ready at the top level.
Chris
I agree that Jackson is not nearly enough to be the center piece in a package for Granderson. He's a prospect. We need ball players. Major league ready players.
I'd have no problem with Strieby getting a shot at being in the Tiger lineup, but at this point, he'd be a DH, and we need to get Ordonez and Carlos into the DH slot a whole lot more, whether they like it or not. Strieby should probably start at Toledo, get acclimated to the outfield, and when he's at least serviceable there (Raburn level or so), bring him up.
I think that Wells is one slot short of making the team. Since Patches has already guaranteed a job to Guillen in LF and a roster spot to Raburn, there is only one spot left for a second utility infielder or a fifth OF/ DH. I'd have no problem with Wells making the team. But I think that JL has Cletus higher on the depth chart because he bats left, even though he didn't belong for the last several weeks of the season.
Casper Wells should be viewed as a potential replacement for Magglio, right along with Cletus. Let them both hit lots of RHP's and see how they do. Something is bound to happen to give Wells a shot at the majors in 2010, but until that event occurs, I think he's one guy shy of making the 25 man roster. He could also be the every day CF, should they sell Granderson to make ends meet.
Wilkin Ramirez will be given a shot when he solves his issues at the plate against righties. He's on his own time line, with no guarantee that he'll ever get there. If he doesn't show progress early, they should probably sell while he has value. We've seen a bunch of his type come and go.
Chris
Since Strieby can't play outfield currently, it's inappropriate to argue this point anyways. Wells will likely make the team and Strieby won't.
K-rates and walk ratios are not big issues with Leyland and Dombrowski anyways. They look at things I discused like being able to hit breaking balls. It's the main reason guys like Clevlen, Kelly, Dlugach..etc... tear-up the ball in the minors, but can't hit major leaguers. That's why I put Strieby in that group with Kellly....etc.
I am do9ne on this subject -- especially since Strieby has very little chance to advance this spring training.
Chris
I do agree somewhat with Damus that as a "2 way player" Wells may actually be more ready for the Tiger needs. But from stictly hitting ability, overall, Strieby definitely is ahead. Strieby can't be the #1 position prospect(Sizemore clearly is)until he has a position he can play at the ML level. I doubt seriously he can ever be an OF, although I guess he could be "Dunn like" out there out of necessity. But if he continues to hit, they'll find a place for him as they always do in MLB. He is a first base/DH type. The Tigers seem to have that covered at the moment though.
Chris
You have Strieby more major league compatable than Wells? I surely don't! Wells is a better position player-prospect than Strieby. Casper is probably being looked at to replace Granderson - should Curtis be traded. He is major league ready and most likely on the plane departing north when the season starts.
Dombrowski will not trade Granderson or Jackson for a top prospect that's not ready. If we acquire Castro for either, he will be a secondary figure in the trade.
Chris
The funny part is, I'd actually be more confident in his ability if he was 24 or so. 21-yr old high octane arms break down all the time....I actually think being younger makes him slightly riskier in this case. But if he checks out and they see enough film and he looks good enough in person, I think it would be a good gamble to take over an old beat up guy. There is no question that the Yankees and/or Red Sox may decide to just pump up the offer to silly heights...if so, then you move on. But if they aren't sold completely either and the offers are not in the stratosphere then it would be great to add a young talent like him.
Chris
Give it a break. You've been very clear where you stand on Iorg and a few others that don't measure up to the stat bar you set. If you would like I can give you a half dozen quotes from managers, coaches, and scouts that were reported on tigstown (oh that's right, it's not what you want to hear so it must just be organizational hype, and not real quotes). As far as Sickels, you can't be serious. I have subscribed to Sickels and still do. In his last year top 20 I think he had Brett Jacobson as his #3 Tiger, and the rest of the list littered with guys nobody would think to put there. In fact, your boy Strieby didn't even make his top 20. Why I subscribe to him I haven't a clue.....guess I just have an extra $30 a year to give away.
Let's leave it at this; you probably interpret and analyze the numbers as well as Sickels or most of the guys that report on prospects. I do the same (although not to your depth). I also read and listen to professionals that get paid to make evaluations. Many of them speak in glowing terms on Iorg. He's not the garbage you make him out to be. But, again, I don't expect you to accept a view from someone who doesn't verify yours, so I'll just move on. Have a good one.
Chris
53- while anything is possible, including fielding offers for a JV now, I think what Chris is really saying is that you'd look to move JV as it comes closer (a year or more)to his free agency time- if there is an indication that he won't want to sign for the Tigers. You have to do it at that point I'd believe....
Chris
My initial point was; we will make every reasonable effort to sign Verlander to a market value contract. He is part of the core of the team. His signing is by far the preferred approach.
Anything in life is possible, and Verlander may decide to test the market. In my view, that's foolish on his part (see TigerDog's post) if we have a top shelf offer on the table..........which we will.
If Verlander makes the choice to test the market, a trade is probable. I don't see that as the case. But, if it happens, that becomes a huge blow to our long term agenda, and DD may have to think about blowing it all up.
We can "what if" all day, the proof will come out in the pudding. At this point I see absolutely no evidence or logical thinking that a Verlander trade during the off season of 2009 is remotely possible. Thinking it will, is really very silly to me. Now, if if if if happens over the next year a trade becomes more likely. For right now, the agenda is; Polanco, Rodney, Lyon, adding a SP, and finding a bat............Verlander trade isn't even being considered. There's way too much to unfold before that becomes the discussion topic
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