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Big IF's
IF JV is concerned about being on a winner, he has to figure that Detroit is a good place to be, even if not the greatest place.
IF JV is waiting to see what direction the team takes, I think the time to see that is NEXT winter, not THIS winter. As much as I've questioned some of DD's moves, I still think the organization WANTS to win. They're not about profit taking. (If they are, then they're dumber than I thought). Many decisions are already made for DD for 2010. What they do with the middle IF and the pen are indicators, and they may well cheap out again this winter in those departments just as they did last winter. But all the money coming off the books this winter- potentially 12.5 mil in free agents, is eaten up with raises to guys like JV. What they do when 65 million more comes off the books is a much bigger question. They'll have a chance to really impress JV and their fans at that point.
IF JV wants to play on a bigger stage, or in a warmer climate, there's nothing DD can do about that. Just get to the Fall Classic and the Playoffs again, and get on National TV as often as possible.
You have to weigh the difference that trading JV this year vs next year makes to a potential buyer, vs what he means to your club for another season. I think the difference weighs heavily in favor of keeping him.
HE has to weigh the value of what he'd get on the free agent market two years from now, minus what's on the table from the Tigers, against the risk that he'll never make it to the promised land- or at least not at a time when his value is at it's peak. He's in the Cy conversation right now, so his value ain't gonna go up as a free agent from where it is now, all market factors being equal.
I don't think it's critical that the Tigers make a move this winter, but they'd be silly to not explore the cost. They'd be silly to just give up what he'd get on the open market plus assume the risk of injury, and they'd be silly to not ask for some discount. He'd be silly to not listen. But even if his mind is made up to leave (and he ain't gonna say that), I'd get another year out of him, then see where you are.
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