| Jump to bottom |
Diesel in the US
.
There is generally great concern about future price of fuel and specifically about the high "premium" demanded for diesel fuel based on past experience and that impact on "pay back".
Let's use "the NTHSA average 2008 domestic passenger vehicle fuel economy" of 21 mpg bacause that is approximately what the average domestic auto owner achieves.
We can also include, for comparison, the "best" combined average that GM has, 30 mpg.
For fuel prices: Gasoline @ $4.50 & diesel @ $6.00 ... hopefully that is a satisfactory range for the forum.
Take the NHTSA average 2008 domestic passenger vehicle fuel economy 21 mpg (4.762 gallons/100 miles @ $4.50/gallon = $21.43/100 miles).
Using the "best" GM domestic passenger vehicle fuel economy according to EPA was 30 mpg (3.33 gallons/100 miles @ $4.50/gallon = $14.98/100 miles).
And the Ford Mondeo Estate diesel at 45 mpg combined (2.222 gallons/100 miles @ $6.00/gallon = $13.33/100 miles).
What happens to supplies if there is an increase in demand for diesel fuel?
The current typical domestic refining process generally yields about 19.6 gallon of gasoline and 11 gallons of diesel per 42 gallons (1 barrel) of light sweet crude.
What you probably do NOT know is that there is an alternative process that yields about 11 gallon of gasoline and 19.6 gallons of diesel per barrel. This process is common in Europe.
So balancing diesel supply with demand should NOT BE AN ISSUE, particularly as fuel demand per vehicle would be decreasing almost 50% on average switching to diesel.
Currently, US refineries are running at between 84% and 88% capacity compared to almost MAX in early 2008. Still stored finished fuel inventories are increasing due to decreased consumption. Further, some are predicting refinery utalization as low as 78% utilization by Spring 2010. This could easily FORCE SHUTDOWN of some of the less efficient domestic refineries.
Regarding diesel vehicle technologies and possible choices ... take a look at the Fords, Volvos, Fiats, Hyundai/Kias, Mazdas, Minis, Nissans, Subarus, and Vauxhalls (Opels) rated above 51 mpg(Imperial) [43 mpg(US)] combined cycle here
http://www.vcacarfueldata.org.uk/search/fuelConSearch.asp
And IF you are a truck person try (be aware that Iveco is part of Fiat)
http://www.vca.gov.uk/vandata/vehicles.aspx
As for why not in the US ... the argument is over 0.250 grams/mile of NOx versus the US limit of 0.030 grams/mile NOx, IIRC (which some newer domestic gasoline vehicles will exceed unless abated).
Meanwhile VW has DEMONSTRATED "THE WILL" to solve the NOx and diesel particle problems for about $1,300 per vehicle (retail market "premium for 50 State compliant diesel"). Now, according to one source, VW has apparently increased the "premium" on their diesels to about $1,800 (about $500/diesel vehicle in ADDITIONAL PROFIT) because of demand.
At least that is the way it looks to me ...
.
| Jump to top |
