| Jump to bottom |
283-407-13
The won lost record is not important to WCF, or the people that buy tickets to the games and all the products that are associated with the Lions year after year.
From a business model viewpoint, there are few American businesses that rival the Lions and WCF's long successful ownership. Even the embarassment of setting the all time single season loss record (the team may be working on a 2,3, 4, and 5 year record now) and the long string of horrible Thanksgiving day games on National TV have not stopped the money from rolling in.
As you point out your post, only in DETROIT can this happen --although Cleveland may be working on a similar business plan to challenge the Lions teams in the future.
Hopeless team
John,
Thanks for your reply. We agree that it will be years before the latest WCF approved "plan" might prove effective and the Lions are really able to compete for a championship.
Inherent in this plan is fact that it is slow process-- drafting the best players available,then hoping the coaching staff can develop them. Perhaps "the plan" should at least for the next two years, involve raiding other teams practice squad members (staffed with last preseason cuts) and add young players that play positions that the Lions coaching staff feels are weak at then end of training camp? Don't fill those positions with retreads. The GM must require that coaching staff to play these guys during the season and see if the talent is really there. Wouldn't this tactic make a better plan long term rather than continuing to try to lure free agents at the end of their careers.?What can happen? at worse the Lions lose with different personnel and if they find a diamond in the rough or two, the team shortens the timetable to being competitive. I think fans would continue to attend games if only to see the new faces and if they turn out to be good players that bond will serve WCF well in the future. If they don't--well they are Lions Fans so they will just say wait until next year like they have done for over 50 years.
Comment?
Well, again, they had a chance at almost every one of those practice squad players at the start of the season, since they had first dibs on the waiver wire. And I think they're doing essentially what you've asked -- more than any other team in the league, really -- by all the work they've done on the waiver wire. (Jack Williams from Denver is the latest example.) Problem with in-season moves is its really much harder than it appears to get those players up to speed and understanding the scheme to actually contribute and be evaluated as an active player, not just a practice player. That's why the offseason is so important.
Hopeless team
John, You amd Mike O'hara picked the Lions to win the stinker bowl.Mike even said it was a lock. He should stay retired and you might want to be more objective. This game,played after a bye week, showed how bad this team really is. In my view, it will be very difficult for them to win any games in the remainder of the season. Looking beyond that.The Lions will not win a championship in the foreseable future. The other teams in the league have "plans" that are effective.Look at how many good players they have, many that the Lions passed over in previous drafts. WCF teams just have unsuccessful "plans". History shows the Lions can't win and be an elite team no matter who is the coach,or players. Even with a new G.M. using same poor talent selection staff, the best they can hope to do to build the team is to staff through the draft. IF they make good choices, they would need to find 3-4 upgraded players to replace those on the team each year. They have yet to prove they can do that. Every year, there are key injuries. Every year they bring in players that are in the last years of their playing career and are cast off by their former team. The Lions sign them and They add little improvement to the team. But that is all they can get. Significant free agents with years of playing time ahead of them do not want to play in the Detroit market. So the new G.M. turns over 31 players in his first year on the job but the replacement roster is made up of 26 or so similar players for the reasons cited and the remainder of new playewrs are a suspect draft of unproven players. So the patttern repeats, year after year. Isn't that the process? Your view?
I agree with your overall assessment: There hasn't been a consistent, long-term plan that anyone has bothered to stick to around here. But my view is this new group really will do just that; Stick to their plan. But we'll just have to wait and see if it works. For what it's worth, Mayhew did make a few changes in his scouting department, though he kept Scott McEwen in charge of the scouting -- he's a guy who is well thought of around the league. The other difference is Mayhew is out there scouting a lot, too, unlike his predecessor. Almost every Fri-Sat last fall, he was on college campuses -- USC (twice, I think), Ohio State, Wake Forest, etc.
And you have to be encouraged that this new staff is at least playing the young guys, no? Stafford, Pettigrew, Delmas, Levy, Hill and Williams/Brown are all starting essentially. The last coach just wanted to play veterans and make young guys wait on the practice field. It was an unrealistic view of where they were at as a team in terms of talent on the roster.
Now then, in free agency, you're right. Free agency is a tool to plug holes, not build a roster. And this year's results are middling, no doubt. But like you point out, it's not easy convincing top-tier free agents to come to an 0-16 team in Detroit, without wildly overpaying them (another mistake of the past). That's one reason why Mayhew acted preemptively with trades for Peterson and Northcutt and Henry. Peterson deal seems to have worked, the other two not so much. But again, it's about trying to field a competitive team while building long-term through the draft.
And again, that's where these guys will sink or swim -- do the draft future stars or do they draft players that don't cut it. And can the coach win when he's got legitimate talent to work with.
What's "The Plan"?
John,
I hven't commented for some time. Not much has changed--see my past posts. I have Sunday ticket and seen all the games. Here is my latest observations.
The 2009 season will play out as most have predicted with the Lions achieving 2-3 more victories at best. What is of real interest now is how will future Lions teams perform to get past that type of record.
You and other posters repeatedly wrote in the past that the latest set of G.M., V.P's and Coaches were selected because they all agreed on a "plan" to make the Lions at least more competitive, if not successful.
Obviously, with the new offense and defense, the team needed different players. To that end, the G.M. and the coach replaced 31 of 2008 team personnel (58%). That level of turnover seems good and in agreement with "the plan". However, as apparent by the on field performance of some of the "new" personnel, the selection of questionable (limited or over the hill,) personnel makes that process suspect. Try outs continue as the season progresses. I assume that this is done with the involvement of the same talent assessment group that has been in place during the Millan years. Given the record of the Lions, that group seems to be ineffective. Look at the Lions record for draft choices--not only the top rounds but overall and free agent signings. Those Lions personnel selection staffers haven't been replaced despite their performance. Shouldn't "the plan" call for that? But then one reason this hasn't been done is that they might have done a good job with prsonnel recommendations. However,the team may have have fallen back into the past Millen and coaches practices (note that Mr. Ford is the overall leader and we know his 50 year success record) Changing personnel just to say you have changed out players without improvement is not a good "plan" to win a championship.
For example, does bringing in old defensive backs that have been discarded by their teams, make sense regarding achieving "the plan"? As we know the team has needed effective defensive backs forever. In view of the 2009 performance, we still need defensive backs.
If real competitive sucess for the Lions is years away shouldn't the team always be trying to add young players and devcelop them, rather than just change out personnel?
I also know that getting a "good veteran player" to come to Detroit is difficult but that only supports the idea that the team must develop young players on its own.
Your Comment?
In general, here's the answer: You have to do two things at once in the NFL when you're essentially starting from the ground up like this franchise is post-Miilen. Build long-term, while also trying to field a ocmpetitive team. (Or "more" competitive, as it were, coming off 0-16.) In this league, given the salary cap and increasingly limited free agent pool and rookie contracts, etc., it's impossible to completely blow it up and go young, the way teams in other sports can. So what you do is you stockpile draft picks (e.g. Roy Williams trade) and draft with a long-term view (best player avail. on Day 1), not a short-term one (don't draft Stafford, defense needs help now!) and then fill in with veteran free agents that fit your immediate needs (Grady Jackson, Larry Foote).
As for the scouting group that's in place, I think Mayhew's got a good eye, actually, and Sheldon White's a sharp guy running the pro personnel, while Scott McEwen, the dir. of college scouting has been here 23 years and has a good reputation around the league.
Now, that's not to say they've done everything right, or made good judgements in every area. Clearly, the overhauled secondary isn't as good as they'd hoped, and they missed on some of their targets to shore up the defensive line (Kevin Carter, John Thornton, et al), among other things.
Las Vegas odds
JDavis,
Regarding your views and questions for John Niyo and the projected competitive Championship record of the 09 Leos. Remember:The Vegas odds makers got it right for the Lions for the last three years. They make money on facts and not on wishes.
The 09 Leos might be better, since they can't be worse! But what happens on offense if Culpepper goes down early and they have to play Stafford very early and often? Will the the two years running worst in the NFL defense, be much better?Just about everyone is new and learning the latest defensive scheme? Will the latest newly promoted Head Coach really be able to be a Head Coach? Can we say Morningwig and Marinelli?
Don't judge how the team will do by what is done in the PreSeason either. The 2008 version was unbeated in Preseason and we know what happened when the games were for real.
John, what say you?
P.S. I agree with Deagel's reaction and comment on the continued employment Millen by the NFL. The good old boy network continues. That they are putting him in front of a microphone to pass on his views of teams and players is incredible. I don't consider myself a real fan,but but more of a Lions observer for over 50 years. I know I will turn down the sound when Millian is on the air since my opinion of what is happening and judgements will be better than his.
What I think is what I know; Vegas just sets the odds to ensure money bet on both sides of the ledger. Any lower and nobody'd bet the under.
Ok This Logic Doesn't Work For Me
John,
your comment to my post points out you know that Lions fans will keep coming to games, buying Lions "stuff" no matter how bad the team performs.
As you say, WCF won't fix what is not broken.
I was kind speaking tongue-in-cheek. I've never bought this argument that he doesn't care if the team wins, etc. I know he does. I just think he's been foolishly loyal and misguided in how he's gone about trying to win as an owner.
Ok This Logic Doesn't Work For Me
The following summarizes 50 years of observing William Clay Ford's operation of his business.
The base strategy can be stated as follows.
It has been applied year after year. 2009 events so far are in agreement.
Never let logic get in the way of any player or management
personnel selection and always have a marketing plan that suggests hope for the future in some undefined way and at the same time do not demand accountability for results in the current season.
See my posts of 11/18/08 and 12/08/08 for further insights.
The Vegas odds makers got it right again.
Lion's Ranking
John,
I hope the players that are selected by the Lions are different than in past years and can really make a difference in the team's record.
Everyone that has even just a little interest in the NFL knows that the current team is in sad shape to compete, even after the personnel moves made by the latest GM and Coach,and the talent assesment staff.
One way to guage how far away the team from being a championship team or even to be competitive with the rest of the teams, is to check how the Las Vegas odds makers rate the team. You may remember that last year, at this time, they gave the Lions 70-1 odds to win the super bowl. Those odds were shared with the K.C. Chiefs. They were the last place teams.
Now in 2009, with new personnel, the odds makers have made the Lions the sole owners of the bottom. The Lions odds have regressed to 150-1. The Chiefs and the Rams are now rated 100-1.
The Packers are 20-1, the Vikings 22-1, the Bears 28-1.
The favorite to win the Superbowl is the Patriots at 6-1.
These facts should keep a sense of reality in our minds as the 2009 season unfolds.
What say you?
lion talent selection
John,
Your recent articles point out many talent options for the latest edition of the new logo edition of the Believe in Now Lions. Out with the former offense and defense plans.Out with players that love to play football but don't have the physical skills to compete for a championship. As the new Vice President, G.M. and Coach point out, the selection of free agents and 2009 draft players is critical to their team plans. The Lions personnel assessment staff have to "make no mistakes". The ability of this group must be top rated. But are they? This is the same group that has been in place since the Millen era.
Obviously, Millen and his multiple head coaches and maybe WCF, had to approve every personnel decision. But the talent staff had to provide them recommendations. It was not only for the first choice in drafts but for all choices. The team did not uncover any diamonds in the rough with lower choices. Other successful teams have done that. But not the Lions. For example, the Lions have repeatedly selected players as high as in the second round of the draft that didn't make it in the NFL. How can they be that wrong? As you noted, the 2005 draft is a total bust. Was it all Millen?
With that history, what chance is there for the same personnel assesment staff to make recommendations THIS time that will result in the Lions being a team with much better personnel than they have had over the past years?
Does Mayhew and his coach take their advice?
What say you John?
Contract terms for GM/Head Coach
John,
A series of questions come to mind, as the Lions fill the boat and embark on another long journey in search of some success.
Do you have any knowledge or insight into any performance objectives established with definite timelines in the contracts for the latest Lions President, G.M, and Head Coach positions? Their Duties?
Or, are they, in the WCF style, contracts that just describe the length of employment and compensation? And in this way, WCF avoids the unpleasantness of performance reviews, until there is enought public/fan outcry and/or loss of revenue to warrent a dismissal?
Does the G.M.evaluate the coach? Who evaluates the
President? Does the President report to G.M or vice versa? Does the Head Coach report to just the G.M.?
If you don't know the answers to these questions would you share your thoughts on them?
The media rarely gets its hands on pro contracts -- we just get the college ones that are public record at state universities. But they're pretty standard. And as we've seen this year, teams aren't afraid to break them, firing coaches with multiple years and millions ($20-21 million each for Shanahan and Gruden I think).
Marinelli got fired with a year left on his deal, too. When a new coach finds other employment, that lessens the final obligation on his former team, just like in other professions.
But as for who's evaluating him, Mayhew's doing the hiring and firing right now. He and Lewand both report to the owner, Ford Sr.
Millen, the nfl expert
John,
What can be said about Millen and his latest gig?
His latest employer calls him the best of his generation and deserves a second chance. To be hired to comment on
the Super Bowl teams is amazing. Perhaps you have some insight to share.
Getting that job makes no rational sense. It is certainly not because of his demonstrated ability and judgement to make accurate assesments of coaching and player talent. Maybe once you are in "the Sports Personality club" your membership can't be taken away no matter how badly you perform.
Why do you think think he was selected over many other very qualified NFL commentators?
See above. He was the heir apparent to Madden before he came to Detroit -- he's always been very good on TV I thought -- and he might still be. Honestly, if guys like Sharpe and Keyshawn can sit there and comment on teamwork and such, is Millen really that big of a stretch? He knows the game and won four Super Bowls; he just can't run an NFL team.
Fired
John,
Some posters, (those die hard fans) feel that the hiring of Mayhew was the best thing that could happen to this sad sack organization. These fans accept whatever WCF does and continue to buy the merchandise and fill the seats.
Others like just tired, that truely want to see postive steps towards respect, have stated the reasons why this WCF decision is another stink bomb.
Learning at Millen's knee, Mayhew brings nothing to the Lions. His decision to retain some of the coaching staff and also the talent assesment group gives some insight into his judegement ability. Of course, his promotion allows WCF to avoid confrontation with reality which he has done so well for so many years as he counts the rise in value of his investment rather than read the standing of the team.
Read all my posts starting two years ago which pointed out the consistent shortcomings of the Ford ownership of the team.
Maybe after fifty years of failure, the best thing to do would be to retire the name of the Lions with their 0-16 record as the low point, and just call them the Fords from now on.
Is Stanton that bad?
John,
Is Stanton just another poor talent selection made by the Lions staff and coaches?
I'm sure there's some people who would say so. Mike Martz is probably one of them. And clearly, getting passed over repeatedly is a sign this staff tends to agree, despite what they say publicly. But if they weren't 0-fer, maybe the rest of us would actually get a chance to see for ourselves. Unfortunately for Stanton, we're not going to get that chance this season.
BELIEVE IN 2011!
John,
I know it takes a strong stomach to answer the same comments over and over, so I understand that you take breaks and don't keep current. I have been observing the Lions as losers for over 50 years and it has been a real effort to do that. I guess if I lived in Chicago I would watch the Cubs. I know am not a blind fan as some posters have stated when they continue to write during this season that this game is the one that the Lions will win or next season they will be much better and contend for the Championship. It doesn't work that way.
To help you get regerated in your Lions beat reporter job, I have a suggestion for you.
Perhaps you should lead the regular posters to this Forum and comment on what might/should happen to make the Lions a playoff team by 2011. Perhaps that timeline focus would put things in realistic perspective for posters. They might have positive comments on what should be done in a step by step approach. Maybe you could pass on the best of those thoughts to the new GM/Coaches. Maybe those views would temper those dream posters that think the Team can turn around next year or even the year after. We all know hat WCF will continue to own the team until his passing so there won't be any real accountabiity or confrontation from the owners box. So the pace of change will be what it has been--slow.
My view is that the Lions sure aren't going to become a legitimate team with a chance to be over 500 until 2011, given the horrible talent assembled by WCF, Millen,the current talent/scouting group (12 people on staff!) Marenelli, and his staff.
If you or other posters feel otherwise, I'd like to see your rationale.
0-16 and counting into the 2009 season !
I tend to agree on that timeline, but here's the problem: There may not be an NFL season in 2011 due to the kind of labor war I just went through a few years ago with the NHL. So we might have push the projection back until 2012?
Thanksgiving belongs in Detroit
JDavis,
You must be in the same state of mind as you were when you wrote all your 2008 preseason and exhibition game posts.
John,
Since there is nothing more to say about the Lions and WCF that hasn't been said,can you tell your editor that this forum will cover the Red Wings?
| Jump to top |
