Wojo's Blog

Fret not, Wings will survive their injuries

It's silly, really. Some angst about the Red Wings is understandable, considering all their injuries, but let's not overblow it. If anything, a little adversity probably is accomplishing precisely what the organization would like: Dialing down expectations a tad, so fans don't consider playoff appearances a God-given guarantee.

Will the Wings make the playoffs for the 19th consecutive season? Yep, they will, and it's shrieky to think otherwise (barring more injuries).

The Wings are missing big forward Johan Franzen and nifty center Valtteri Filppula, but both should return before the playoffs. The Wings still have three of the top 15 players n the world -- Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk -- and they still have a title-tested goalie (Chris Osgood) playing very well now.

When long-time team executive Jimmy Devellano suggested the other day it'd be a "miracle" for the Wings to get home-ice advantage in the playoffs, he was being classic Jimmy D -- a smart guy who likes to fret.

I actually think all the injuries will force the Wings to return to a more-responsible defensive style, something they never quite reached last season, even as they came within one victory of repeating as champs. They showed their savvy and experience in a 2-1 victory over hot San Jose the other night, and while they'll struggle at times to score goals, they're not sliding out of sight, trust me.

I think the Wings will end up somewhere between a three seed and five seed in the West, and while they won't be picked to win the Cup, they'll be dangerous when it matters. You can't say it's the same as always around the Joe, but the Wings are not as far away as you think.

Calvin Johnson can't carry the Lions' hopes forever

Follow my logic here. Calvin Johnson is the Lions' best player, by far. When he's injured, their offense shrinks dramatically. I think he'll play Sunday against St. Louis with a banged-up knee, but if he can't, the Lions easily could lose to a winless team.

Which leads us to the problem for the Lions (uh, one of many): As long as Johnson is their undisputed best player, they won't be any good.

That's not a knock on Johnson at all. It's a knock on the rest of the roster, and further evidence why no consistently good NFL team ever, ever builds around a wide receiver. A great one can be schemed out of a game. And any receiver needs a decent quarterback, a decent offensive line and a decent running game to achieve maximum effectiveness.

Enjoy watching Calvin. When he's healthy, he's terrific.

But the Lions won't be making progress until they have a defensive player, or an offensive lineman, or a running back (I doubt it'll be Kevin Smith), or a quarterback to challenge Johnson as the team's star.

Matthew Stafford will do it eventually, theoretically. But sorry, Stafford is a year or two away from any chance of being the Lions' best player.

That said, here's your pick: Lions 23, Rams 16.

A Cheesehead's view of the Lions

On the way to the airport, the Green Bay cabbie asked where I was headed. I told him. He gave me that sympathetic look, one I had seen before.

"So you were here for the game, huh?" he said.

Yep.

"Lions still not any good, are they?"

Nope.

I was ready for the next line -- "Hey, at least they've won a game, hahahahaha!" -- but it never came. What the cab driver said next was either sort of interesting, or further evidence that excessive cheese rots the brain, as well as the intestines.

"Don't worry, you guys got a real good coach there," he said.

Mind you, this was the day after the Lions were squashed by the Packers 26-0, a hideous performance without any redeeming benefits. When out-of-town people talk to me about the Lions, they usually mention one person -- Calvin Johnson. This guy was touting first-year head coach Jim Schwartz, so I was intrigued.

"You know how you can tell he's a good coach?" the cabbie said.

I'm listening (and I actually was).

"Look at what happened to his defense in Tennessee as soon as he left. Think about it."

So I did. The Titans are 0-6 since Schwartz left as defensive coordinator, and they just finished off a stirring 59-0 loss to New England. Their defense ranked seventh last season and now sits at 31st. They're falling apart in Schwartz's absence, and for Lions fans, maybe that's a good sign.

Ah, but then I watched Monday Night football and saw Denver beat San Diego to go to 6-0. And I noted the Broncos had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season, and now rank No. 2 overall under new head coach Josh McDaniels. They brought in a ton of new starters (just as the Lions did), nabbed a great veteran safety in Brian Dawkins and completely turned themselves around in one year.

So it can be done, and the sobering thought is, it's not being done here yet, although I fully acknowledge the 0-16 Lions needed far more work than the Broncos. The cabbie's point was fair -- Schwartz has a terrific defensive reputation. But this Lions' defense looks about as bad as last year's horrific defense, with opposing quarterbacks shredding it once again.

Because of that, my viewpoint is slightly different. I think Schwartz can be a good head coach, but a lot will depend on whether Martin Mayhew can be a decent general manager. Past experience means little when you come to the Lions. And until they show any semblance of improvement on defense, sorry, I can't be as chipper as my Cheesehead friend.

The key player for the Tigers next season is ....

Ah, good question. And of course, I have the answer, so read on.

The Tigers had one of the most-devastating conclusions to a season ever, losing an extra-inning, extra game to the Twins. Overall, it was a moderately successful season, 86-77 and three outs from the playoffs. Ultimately, it wasn't enough, and it also raised the stakes for next year, because GM Dave Dombrowski will have to plug a few holes.

I think two key free-agents -- Placido Polanco and Fernando Rodney -- will leave. That means the Tigers will need a second baseman and a closer, not really the toughest positions to fill. They also might need a shortstop, although they can live with the Adam Everett-Ramon Santiago combo. They need a corner outfielder, although Ryan Raburn has developed into a decent hitter with power.

All relevant issues, but not as big as the one involving the key Tiger for next season. Ready? The guy who single-handedly could shape this team's possible contention is -- dum-da-dum -- Edwin Jackson.

Yes, if you're asking me right now, I say the Tigers' hopes will shrink or rise dramatically based on this question: Who's the real Edwin Jackson?

Is it the guy who was dominant until mid-July and near the league leaders in ERA at 2.52? Or is it the guy who gave up at least five earned runs in four of his last five starts and staggered to the finish with a 13-9 record and 3.62 ERA?

Truly tough to tell. Jackson, 26, appeared to tire at the end, which means the issue could be solvable. If it is, the Tigers have Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello and Jackson at the top of their rotation, and that'll keep them in a lot of games.

The offense was frustrating to watch, but even with all their flaws, the Tigers had a chance because of their pitching. If Jackson returns to his first-half form, they indeed will have another decent shot next year.

Is this really the one for the Lions?

This is the week, supposedly. This is when it finally, mercifully ends, right? The Lions are 0-2 and have lost 19 straight, but hey, at least they can score a few points!

The Redskins come to town with a 1-1 record, a coach (Jim Zorn) with a bulls-eye on his back and an offense that eked out a 9-7 win over St. Louis last Sunday. And many people, locally and nationally, think this is the week the Lions' losing streak ends.

And that's the problem, right there. Because of their infamy, the Lions have been robbed of the one intangible they possessed -- the ability to be overlooked, to sneak up on an unsuspecting foe. And that's why the upset mania is self-defeating, and the Lions' streak likely will continue.

All week in Washington, the talk has been about Zorn's job security, and Jason Campbell's worth as a quarterback, and that anemic offense, and how the Redskins have to beat the sadsack Lions or daffy owner Daniel Snyder might kick everyone out and change the locks on the doors.

The Lions are a tortured lot, obviously, with a rookie quarterback, Matthew Stafford, trying to find his way under horrible circumstances. But the Redskins also are a tortured group, and they happen to have a very good defense capable of alleviating (and inflicting) pain. They're waiting for prized defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth to make an impact, and you know he will, soon.

The Lions need several breaks to win, and unfortunately for them, Campbell isn't the type of quarterback to hand over breaks. He has a low interception percentage, not that the Lions are remotely adept at picking off passes anyway. And if you think the Redskins are already beaten down after two games, please.

The Lions are the get-well card for the rest of the NFL. If opponents come in with diminished focus -- as the Vikings seemed to while digging a 10-0 deficit before outscoring the Lions 27-3 -- it's off-set by the growing incentive not to be The One.

I've felt all along the Lions had a shot to beat the Redskins, but now I wonder. Washington still has offensive weapons -- Clinton Portis, Chris Cooley, Santana Moss -- and surely senses the danger.

Fear of embarrassment will sharpen anyone's focus, and the Redskins have been slapped alert by fear. Sorry to say, not good news for the Lions.

This is not a Stafford issue -- yet

The knee-jerk reaction (or arm-jerk reaction) is to play the I-told-you-so card about Matthew Stafford, about how difficult it would be for him to have any success taking over an 0-16 team. Oops, hold on. This is a different team, as the Lions remind us again and again.

Fair enough. But it's still a bad team, and while Stafford is not the reason the Lions are 0-2, he sure hasn't helped. That said, let's be very clear on this: Stafford should not be replaced by Daunte Culpepper.

I thought Culpepper should start the season, but once he made his decision, Jim Schwartz has to stick with it for a while. Schwartz wisely wouldn't say Stafford is his quarterback "no matter what," because the truth is, if the rookie throws one TD pass and five interceptions every two games, he'll have to be benched.

Not yet. The kid is raw and risk-taking, but he shows some intriguing flashes. It makes no sense to reverse field already.

The problem is, I do think the Lions' losing streak can mess with Stafford. He loves the strength of his own right arm, and he already forces throws to Calvin Johnson. As the pressure mounts to get a victory, Stafford might be tempted to force even more.

Schwartz says he saw improvement in Stafford from the first week to the 27-13 loss to the Vikings. I did too, marginally. But he's still completing only 50.7 percent of his passes (34-for-67), and against Minnesota, offensive coordinator Scott Linehan protected Stafford with conservative play-calling.

That's the tricky balance -- letting the youngster learn by firing away, and not letting him throw away games by firing recklessly.

It's flat-out stupid to judge Stafford on two games. His inaccuracy is a surprise, but his struggle is completely expected.

Cheers and beers for Lions fans

It has to be one of the toughest tasks in sports, being a Lions fan. Practically every downtrodden franchise in the NFL has had its moment the past half-century, while Lions fans still wait for the next new era that changes everything.

Lions fans still go to games, although in this economy, expecting sellouts at Ford Field is expecting too much. Lions fans still rave about their hopes (um, sometimes), rant about their team (a lot) and care about their team. And when I'm on the road covering the Lions, I see plenty of fans that still travel with their team.

How do they do it, maintaining sanity amid an 18-game losing streak? Well, I noticed one method of coping on my trip back from New Orleans Monday afternoon. The Lions had lost to the Saints 45-27 the day before, and in the airport lounge, there was a pack of Lions fans loudly recapping the game. They were mostly merry and kind of funny. They also got to the lounge a bit too early.

On the plane shortly before takeoff, the pilot came on the P.A.: "It appears we have some passengers who spent quite a bit of time in the bar. We cannot have these people making it difficult for our flight attendants. So, I've never done this in my 13 years as a pilot, but I'm gonna say there will be no alcohol served on this flight. If there's any problem from any passengers, we will land somewhere short of Detroit. Thank you."

Ouch. Lions fans weren't the only ones who had imbibed, by the way. And there was no overt rowdiness on the plane, just some boisterous ranting.

Ah, if only the Lions themselves could be as intimidating as their fans. I've said it before, I'll say it again: If the Lions ever got this thing turned around and won big, the party would make any other Detroit party look like just another night at the bingo hall.

Punishment for Oregon punch was too harsh

I'm not here to defend Oregon running back LeGarrette Blount. Really, I'm not. He took a swing at Boise State's Byron Hout after the Ducks' 19-8 loss, then had to be restrained from charging into the stands.

The guy was a hot-head. His act was idiotic and it's gotten about 100,000 hits on YouTube, so there's no hiding. But he didn't technically hurt anybody, and he was being taunted by Hout. To be suspended for the rest of his senior season is sad and excessive.

One punch cost Blount his college career, and plenty in college football are applauding Oregon's stand for sportsmanship. Fine. I'm wondering about individual fairness, especially with this occurring in the immediate aftermath of a frustrating loss, and because many players guilty of off-field crimes are allowed to keep playing.

A five-game suspension would have been perfectly severe, and it would have sent the same strong message. Blount is being allowed to stay on scholarship and practice with the team, but this whole idealistic notion of turning college football players into no-nonsense robots is a bit much.

No excessive celebrations. Not much leaping around, please. And hey, don't forget to meet your opponent at midfield for the pre-game handshake, the NCAA's latest attempt to make the fellas play nice.

Rules are important. Rules should be followed. College kids are different than NFL players and they need more guidance and structure. And reportedly, Blount had missed team meetings, so he was hardly a model citizen.

Because it was a slow-news opening week for college football, Blount's case gained incredible attention, and Oregon probably felt it had no choice but to act harshly. Tough decision, sure. The tougher, fairer decision would have been to suspend him for half the season, not end his career.

My rock-solid season predictions for U-M and MSU

Ah, into the great unknown we go. Michigan and Michigan State are about to open their seasons wrapped in some uncertainty -- much more for the Wolverines, of course.

The Spartans generally are pegged for third in the Big Ten, and that's fair. But they're starting a new young quarterback, and joining Kirk Cousins will be a whole new batch of running backs. There's a ton of promise there, especially from freshmen Larry Caper and Edwin Baker, but we're about to see how valuable Javon Ringer was. I have a feeling he'll be missed more than people realize.

We're also about to see how good linebacker Greg Jones is, and I think he'll live up to his tremendous billing. The Spartans need to lean heavily on their defense as Cousins grows.

As for Michigan, people talk endlessly about the quarterbacks (guilty!), but I believe freshman Tate Forcier has the tools and smarts to develop quickly. The larger concern is a thin defense with inexperienced safeties who could be prone to surrendering big plays. Rich Rodriguez's speed-rich offense gradually will get more explosive; I'm just not sure there are enough impact players on that defense.

There's nothing really predictable about either team, no matter what you've heard. But I'll give it a shot anyway.

Michigan State will go 9-3, with losses at Notre Dame, at Illinois and home to Penn State. The Spartans will earn their second straight New Year's Day bowl bid.

Michigan will go 7-5, with losses at Michigan State, at Iowa and at Illinois, and home to Penn State and Ohio State. Yes, I have the Wolverines beating Notre Dame, although I reserve the right to change everything pending Saturday's game against Western Michigan.

Will the Wolverines be galvanized by controversy or crumble from it? I say it's a 65-35 chance they'll be galvanized. With so many young players, it might not matter.

New Michigan Stadium looks good so far

It's big, it's different, it's shiny and new. It's also not done yet.

But updated Michigan Stadium, with its $226-million renovation, is taking shape, and I bet most fans will like the look. Oh, some Old Blues will get weepy over this new-fangled thing called Change, but if they can afford any of the fancy seats, they'll get over it.

The red-brick exterior with the arched windows has a classic feel, actually better than the interior. The inside is glass and blue steel, with tinted windows on the 82 luxury suites. It's glitzier than the brick and not as impressive, but I can live with it.

If you don't have $55,000-$85,000 for a suite, your game-day experience probably won't change much. You'll keep squeezing your ever-widening butt (sorry) onto the old benches, which will provide a tad more room once the project is done by June, 2010.

Michigan officials are confident the towering stories on the west and east sides will increase crowd noise, trapping it and sending it to the field. We'll see. But no doubt, the stadium finally has an imposing facade. I can't tell you how many out-of-town media members over the years expressed surprise (read: disappointment) at how small a 107,000-seat stadium could look.

That era's over. The Big House actually looks big, and after all the years of debate, it's needed progress.