Category: Politics
Posted by Libby Spencer on Wed, Nov 4, 2009 at 1:05 PMMedia misses on election analysis
I try not to read any post election analysis before I write my own obligatory observations, but a quick scan of the headlines tells me the major media is drawing the wrong lessons from yesterday's elections. Starting with the governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey -- no this is not an indictment of Obama's presidency and it most definitely doesn't mean that the Democrats need to go further right or some call it "centrist" to get out the vote. Rather the opposite.
The lesson for the Democrats is that the days of the Blue Dog Democrats are over. The new voters mobilized in 08 by Obama's candidacy were driven by the promise of change and an implied shift towards more liberal policies. Deeds ran as a GOP lite style candidate. While the conventional wisdom suggested this would be a winning strategy in a traditionally very conservative state, the fact is the Obama voters are not going to show up for anything less than true progressives. The Dems made a big mistake in not finding someone more like Alan Grayson to carry their banner. A candidate like that may still have lost, but it would have fired up the progressive and youth base they need in order to keep the "purple" momentum going into 2010.
As for Corzine, I don't really follow NJ politics that closely but I have enough internet friends from the state to speculate that his problems were more rooted in issues around corruption (real and/or imagined) and his connections to bankster Goldman Sachs. This was very much a race based on state politics and has no real analytical value for the national scene. Also, it appears Corzine ran a sloppy and stupid campaign. From what I saw, it looked like it his message was pretty much, vote for me because my opponent is fat. Frankly, I'm not shedding any tears over that loss. Never much cared for the guy myself, based pretty solely on anecdotes about his style of governance.
Which brings me to what that means for 2010? Absolutely nothing. So the two Republicans won the governor's seat, but now they have to govern. I'm guessing it will take less than a year for the voters of both states to realize that Republicans just don't govern well. For example, see Romney, Mitt. I doubt he would have won re-election to a second term. Didn't take all that long for the voters to sour on his failed promises. In any event, the exit polling in both states showed clearly that there was no meaningful Obama backlash in the vote.
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Libby misses reality...
Libby's post is laughable. If the Dems had won, she'd trumpet a "new mandate for change" by liberal Democrats. But she ignores facts:
1. Obama went to NJ on 5 separate occassions to campaign for Corzine
2. Obama taped an electronic phone message for Corzine that was blasted out to NJ voters
If these elections weren't important, why campaign SO hard for a lowly NJ Governor?
Had Obama not gotten involved or attached to the campaign in NJ, Libby's claim could hold water. But the President's behvaior clearly proves otherwise. Even after tossing the equity of the White House and his own office into the pot (and they still lost).
Libby's other premise is downright laughable:
Quote:"...this is not an indictment of Obama's presidency and it most definitely doesn't mean that the Democrats need to go further right or some call it "centrist" to get out the vote. Rather the opposite...the fact is the Obama voters are not going to show up for anything less than true progressives."
If you follow Libby's premise, the only people who vote for Obama are progressive liberals. Her grip on reality is definitely slipping as she actually believes that people who voted for Obama won't show up to vote unless there is a preogressive liberal running...
Here's the other factoid that Libby ignores: Obama's approval is slipping dramatically with Independent voters.
"Obama Job Approval Rating among Independents'
Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 53%
Source: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/09/01/cnn-poll-independents-disapprove-of-obama/
"Independents begin to edge away from President Obama" (and this was back in July)
"This is a huge sea change that is playing itself out in American politics," said Democratic pollster Doug Schoen. "Independents who had become effectively operational Democrats in 2006 and 2008 are now up for grabs and are trending Republican."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0709/24717.html#ixzz0VuxfmMIG
Even Nancy Pelosi, the posterchild for liberalism, is losing support in her liberal home state of California:
"Poll: Pelosi's Approval Rating Plunges in California"
"Only 34 percent of Californians approve of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's, D-CA, job performance, down 14 points from March, according to a new poll."
Source: http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/pelosi_poll_approval/2009/10/20/274431.html
In the midst of all these failures while trying to force unpopular liberal legislation, Libby continues to claim the failures are due to the fact that politicians aren't liberal enough...
Do you hear that? It's the sound of moderate Democrats on the Hill - taking cover...
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