New polls in the Michigan primary campaign
Two new independent polls of Michigan primary voters out today add to the evidence for a surge for Mike Huckabee in Michigan, a decline for Rudy Giuliani and the possibility of a John McCain surge if the GOP contest draws lots of independents and Democrats.
First, the survey from Marketing Resource Group, a Republican consulting firm in Lansing, for the "Inside Michigan Politics" newsletter. Among likely Republican voters, the survey found Huckabee (22 percent) and Mitt Romney (21 percent) essentially tied, with McCain third at 14 percent. But when Democrats and independents who say they might vote in the Republican race were included, McCain was at 21 percent, with Romney at 18 percent and Huckabee at 16 percent. In both cases, Giuliani, who has been ahead in most polling in recent months, trailed significantly.
One word of caution: The MRG poll surveyed a relatively small sample of Michigan voters. Even the larger sample of all possible GOP primary voters was just 240 respondents, which means the poll has a margin of error of roughly 6 percentage points.
Predicting voter behavior, especially that of Democrats and independents, is difficult, but despite those cautions, the poll does offer some hope for McCain supporters that he could do well in Michigan, especially if his focus on New Hampshire pays off with a good performance there.
The second poll, by Lansing firm Denno-Noor, was conducted for Rossman Group, a Lansing public relations firm, and the Michigan Information & Research Service newsletter. Romney (21 percent) and Huckabee (19 percent) were deadlocked in this survey as well. But again, McCain (13 percent) moved into third place, ahead of Giuliani (11 percent). Giuliani's support was cut in half from the firm's last poll, in September. And Fred Thompson, who was in second place with 19 percent in the September survey, fell to 8 percent in the most recent poll. The firm said the survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
